Back to Markets
AI

Which AI milestone will be announced next?

$124.8M Vol.Oct 31, 2026
New flagship model30.0%
New SOTA coding result22.0%
Major regulation18.0%
Real-time video in consumer product15.0%
$124.8M Vol.
9%17%25%33%40%Jan 20Feb 14Mar 3Mar 4Mar 16Mar 16Mar 18Mar 18Mar 18
New flagship model
$37.4M Vol.
30%+1%
New SOTA coding result
$27.4M Vol.
22%-6%
Major regulation
$22.5M Vol.
18%-4%
Real-time video in consumer product
$18.7M Vol.
15%+7%
Major safety incident
$10.0M Vol.
8%+7%
None of these
$8.7M Vol.
7%+4%

This market resolves to the milestone category that is announced or demonstrated by a credible AI lab or research institution (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, etc.) and reported by major tech outlets first. Resolution source: Official lab announcements and reporting by The Verge, Wired, and MIT Technology Review.

Closes:October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
200d 17h remaining
Created At:Feb 18, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC

Comments (0)

Sign in to join the discussion

Sign in
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!
YES
YES

Select an outcome to trade

Click "Buy Yes" or "Buy No" on any outcome above

Related Markets

Will Microsoft AI release a new flagship model?

Will Microsoft AI release a new flagship model?

95%Will a public model set a widely reported SOTA on MMLU?

Will a public model set a widely reported SOTA on MMLU?

95%Will a major government propose licensing for frontier models?

Will a major government propose licensing for frontier models?

95%Will a major government propose mandatory watermarking for AI media?

Will a major government propose mandatory watermarking for AI media?

95%Will a public model set a widely reported SOTA on SWE-bench?

Will a public model set a widely reported SOTA on SWE-bench?

95%